India to witness COVID-19 peak in mid-November: Study

COVID-19 peak

It seems there is no immediate relief in sight from Corona virus. A recent study has said, India has yet to witness peak as it got delayed possibly because of early stage lockdown of two-three month along with strengthened public health measures.


The study conducted by researchers from an Operations Research Group constituted by ICMR said Corona cases may reach peak in mid-November during which there could be a paucity of isolation and ICU beds, and ventilators. The lockdown pushed back peak season by an estimated 34 to 76 days and helped bring down the number of infections by 69 to 97 per cent, a PTI report said.

In the scenario of intensified public health measures with 60 per cent effectiveness after lockdown, the demand can be met until the first week of November. After that, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 and ventilators for 3.9 months, projections by the health researchers showed, the report said.

Also read: Covid-19: AIIMS sets up helpline number to guide medicos tackle cases


However, this shortfall is estimated to be 83 per cent less than what it could have been without the lockdown and public health measures.

“While lockdowns will delay the onset of peak and will give the much needed time for the health system to respond, strengthening the health system response in terms of testing, isolation of cases, treatment and contact tracing, as is being done currently, will have to be the mainstay to reduce the impact of the pandemic in India until vaccine becomes available,” it said.

The country saw a record spike of 11,929 cases pushing India’s COVID-19 caseload to 3,20,922 on Sunday while the death count rose to 9,195 with an increase of 311 fatalities, according to the Union Health Ministry data.

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