As per a modelling study conducted by the researchers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), India may witness 2.87 lakh projected cases of COVID-19 per day by the end of winter 2021.
The study comprises data from for 84 countries — spanning 4.75 billion people.
In a preprint paper, MIT professors Hazhir Rahmandad and John Sterman, and PhD candidate Tse Yang Lim, noted that the top ten countries by projected daily infection rates at the end of winter 2021 are India with 2.87 lakh infections per day, followed by the US, South Africa, Iran, Indonesia, the UK, Nigeria, Turkey, France, and Germany, a PTI report said.
However, they noted that the projections are highly sensitive to assumed testing, behavioural, and policy responses, and as such they should be interpreted as indicators of potential risk and not precise predictions of future cases.
The researchers added that more rigorous testing and reductions in contacts in response to risk perception will significantly reduce future cases while laxer response and normalisation of risks can lead to overwhelming breakouts.
By making additional assumptions on future testing and responses, the researchers said the model can inform future trajectories.
“We explore a few projections out to spring 2021 that exclude vaccine and treatment availability,” said the researchers as quoted by the report.
“Our model simulates the progression and spread of Covid-19, including how people interact, how many get sick, how many get tested, how many are hospitalized, how many die — and how people change their behaviour in response to the risk they perceive,” Rahmandad said.
“We then use a wide range of data to estimate the parameters of the model — say, what fraction of infections are asymptomatic, and how contagious the virus is — to give the best match to the real world data,” they said.
The model revealed several important insights. Most fundamentally, the magnitude of the epidemic is widely under reported, the researchers said.
They estimate that cases and deaths through June 18 are, respectively, 11.8 and 1.48 times higher than official reports across the 84 nations considered.
Despite these elevated numbers, the authors note that no country is remotely close to establishing herd immunity, they said.
“While actual cases are far greater than official reports suggest, the majority of people remain susceptible. Waiting for herd immunity is not a viable path out of the current pandemic,” Rahmandad said.